MPs return to Westminster today as the new parliamentary session begins. And on Wednesday MSPs will hear the First Minister, Alex Salmond, outline his government’s plans for the period up to next year’s election.
Seems like the summer has gone, in political terms at least.
David Cameron will return from his holiday to the first real Commons test for his government. The new arrival in the Cameron household may have kept the Prime Minister up recently, but it could be the proposed Alternative Vote referendum that will now cause him sleepless nights.
MPs will today begin debating the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill. The government plans to hold a referendum on changing the voting system next May, which means that their bill has to be agreed quickly.
Many Tory MPs believe that the opposition parties are right to object to the government’s choice of date: the same day as elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and Northern Ireland Assembly, as well as local council elections in some parts of England.
Government whips will be working hard to ensure that the bill survives. And while 45 Tory MPs signed a Commons motion calling for a switch of date, it is unlikely that all will vote against their own party. The coalition should win the vote, but even a minor rebellion would be an embarrassment.
Labour meanwhile will continue with what feels like the longest leadership election in history. And there are still three weeks or so to go until a winner is declared. David Miliband is still the favourite to become Labour’s next leader although his brother Ed is certainly not out of it.
With the government facing a spending review and announcements on exactly where the massive cuts it is proposing will fall, a strong opposition is required to put pressure on the coalition. Labour will hope that a newly elected leader can give them a boost in the polls and a new focus, which the leaderless party has lacked since the election.
In Scotland, the big political news is the SNP’s decision to backtrack on its plans for a parliamentary debate on its own referendum bill. Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon this morning confirmed that MSPs will not be given the chance to debate the issue.
A bill will be published, however, outlining plans for a referendum with options of more power for the Scottish Parliament, full independence or the status quo. The SNP hopes that this will become the main issue in next year’s elections.
But the latest opinion poll brings bad news for Alex Salmond and co. A new YouGov survey puts Labour on 39%, 10 points ahead of the SNP. The Tories are on 19%, which they will be reasonably happy with, while the Lib Dems slide continues as they come it at just 11%.
John Curtice of Strathclyde University, a leading political commentator, predicts that the figures would see the SNP lose twelve seats, with Labour gaining eight and becoming the largest party in the Parliament, although well short of a majority.
The First Minister will hope that his plans for a referendum will prove popular in the country, although he will perhaps have more pressing matters ahead of him as budget cuts bite. The SNP will go into the election as the party of government for the first time, and the opposition parties will try to ensure that its record while in power is put under close scrutiny.
The summer recess is usually a period where little happens. And the beginning of the next parliamentary term traditionally marks the renewal of hostilities in both Westminster and Holyrood.
With a new coalition government at the start of its parliamentary life in London and a minority government coming to the end of its term in Edinburgh, there will be much for those of us who are keen observers of the political process to consider over the coming months.
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