David Cameron, Prime Minister of the UK, and Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland, will be meeting on Monday. This is the culmination of months of negotiation on a Scottish referendum and it is expected that an agreement between the two will be signed.
And then we can get on with the discussion on Scotland’s future constitutional status rather than endlessly debating points of procedure.
Much of the detail of the final agreement is already in the public domain, and there aren’t too many surprises. Westminster will use what is technically known as a Section 30 notice to allow the Scottish Parliament to hold the referendum, which will take place in Autumn 2014. It has been reported that the power transfer will lapse at the end of 2014, so there can be no further delays. Surely two years is quite long enough, even for a decision of this magnitude?
There will be only one question on the ballot paper. And the franchise will be extended to include most of those aged 16 and 17, as well as those who will be on the electoral roll come referendum day.
Now back in January of this year Alex Salmond launched a consultation document “Your Scotland, Your Referendum”. We have been told that a lot of responses were received – but we have not been informed what they actually say. It seems very odd that a final agreement on the issues will be reached before some sort of announcement is made on what the Scottish people actually told the government.
Much attention has concentrated on whether the responses would back the inclusion of the so called Devo Max option – more, but unspecified, powers for the Scottish Parliament while remaining within the UK. Salmond has said that he would consider including another option, or indeed another question, if people wanted it. But it seems that it will be a single question now, whatever the responses actually said.
A single question has always a key issue for David Cameron and it seems like Salmond has conceded the point. While Scotland’s First Minister clearly wants independence it has always been thought that he would like to have the safety net of more powers for his government too.
I’ve always argued that a single question on the fundamental constitutional issue is the right way to go. Referenda are for matters of principle not of detail. And the key issue is whether Scotland remains a devolved part of the UK or becomes independent. If independence is defeated, and I expect that it will be, the gradual devolution process that started with the creation of the Scottish Parliament will then continue.
The wording of the question is an interesting one. Salmond’s initial proposal (“Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”) was very much a leading question and the Electoral Commission was never going to allow it. The final wording will, quite correctly, be much more neutral. The SNP did talk about establishing a Scottish Electoral Commission to oversee the whole process, but backed away. Leaving the job to the established experts seems like a good call.
The big issue in the media is the apparent agreement of Cameron to Salmond’s proposed extension of the franchise for the referendum to include 16 and 17 year olds. It was postulated that this would give an advantage to the nationalists, as young people are assumed to be more responsive to the idea of change. But recent opinion polls, if they are to be believed, do not show this to be the case.
There is a strong argument for the extension of the franchise to include younger people. 16 year olds can pay tax, so why can they not vote on how public funds are spent? And many school pupils are better informed through civics classes at school than a lot of older people might be.
But I don’t believe that a referendum is the place to make such a change. And a deal between two leaders certainly isn’t the way to go about it. I would much rather see a proper public debate and a decision that covers all elections reached. Whether the qualifying age remains at 18 or reduces to 16 or 17 there should be a process to making that decision and not a behind the scenes political deal.
And there are technical problems that mean the issue might not be properly settled before the referendum in any case.
The Electoral Commission has warned that the current system excludes nearly all of those aged 16. They can only apply to be added to the electoral roll in advance if their 18th birthday falls in the year after 1 December. Because registration ends each October, only those who are older than 16 years and 10 months can therefore do so. According to The Guardian only about a third (44,000) of Scotland’s 123,000 16 and 17 year olds are included on the roll at present.
There is, of course, time to get that corrected. And a wholescale change in electoral registration across the UK is scheduled to come into force in the summer of 2014. It will then become a legal requirement for every individual to register, replacing the current system where one form is filled in for each household. Is it possible to bring in a new system and also change the rules for one vote? Probably it is – but it would have to be done very carefully to ensure that no one is excluded.
There might still be an issue over campaign spending – the amount that each side is allowed to spend in the last few crucial weeks of the referendum campaign. The Scottish Parliament will set the rules – but governments always do so on the basis of advice from the experts, the Electoral Commission. . But the SNP wants the Scottish Government to set whatever rules it wants – which would be as clear a conflict of interests as you can have.
So we are almost there. The process is almost agreed. And the campaigns have already started. It’s just a pity that the actual vote won’t take place a lot sooner than 2014.
Our politicians don’t want public debates on a number of issues,mainly because the results of such debates are not likely to coincide with what they want, so instead we continue to get cost Westminster back-door deals, which don’t take account of what public opinion may want.
Another two years of the Tories/Lib Dumbs and the irrelevant Right Wing North British Labour Party 😦 Personally, I think Salmond has played a blinder on negotiating the terms – The Devo Max option was popular with the public but frowned upon by the Unionist Party’s – I reckon most Scots who wanted that option on the ballot paper will be more likely to vote yes when the time comes, and of course, the 16 and 17 year old’s are always going to be more confident in their country’s ability to be self sufficient. The doom and gloom offered by the bitter together obsessed by austerity party’s is only going intensify before the next GE – They’re only going to argue over what’s the best way to cut spending on welfare and reduce the deficit. Whilst the pro independence party’s will be offering a way out, concentrating more on Scotland’s ability to prosper and look after it’s vulnerable.